Like in school when we were made to study various subjects which probably would have no bearings in our lives.
I was from the Science Stream and now, all the Physics, Biology, Chemistry are poured down the drain.
Instead of pursuing a science driven career, I went ahead with Accounting.
In the course of my journey in Trading, as I've mentioned previously in My Journey of Learning, I have learned various methods - Candlestick, Indicators, Patterns and Elliott Wave.
Today, I am resolve to ditch two methods:
1. Patterns
I have deep affinity for this method. This patterns was one of my favorite.
It basically revolves around a breakout system with a target price.
It may also suggest additional top up entries
However, the drawbacks are as follows:
1) if you have to cringe you eyes to see the pattern, its not there.
2) If you are the only one to see the pattern, its going to fail.
3) If you are the last one to see the pattern, its going to fail.
4) Price pattern is a self fulfilling prophecy. You need a lot of other trader think alike to make it work.
5) Different trader may act differently to make the price pattern fail.
6) Price pattern will not give you an "edge" because it is observable by anyone.
What it means by "self-fulfilling prophecy" is that the more people use this method, the more this method will work. And if no one uses this method, it will fail.
One of the famous quote which was used and reused, basically overused, is Mao Zedong's "It doesn't matter whether a cat is black or white, so long as it catches mice."
For me to advance another level in TA, I must disagree.
I must not leave my fate to mere chance.
Hence, I must use only the right way. And sad but I must, ditch this method.
2. Elliott Wave
I am also ditching this method.
Some of you who knows me, probably know I am a defender of Elliott Wave Theory. My method of usage is slightly different. However, while this method does work, there are many areas of subjectivity.
Also, the major problem I have with this method is myself.
I find myself too prone to predicting the market and trying to time the market even though, I keep stressing that one must not do so.
This is a trading sin which I am guilty of and of which everyone should be aware and avoid.
So what does it mean?
Well, it basically means, I am consolidating my methods.
Henceforth, I shall rely mainly on candlestick - which shows the price movement; and indicators - which assist me to decipher the price volume movement.
I am getting closer to nature, I think.
Will I be handicapped if I ditch this two methods?
Let's see - a pattern is based on breakouts.
Breakouts are based on trendlines.
Pattern targets - well, I ll missed them, but I ll substitute with Resistance Concept.
Elliott Wave, Well, I ll miss this tool too, frankly speaking.
But wave identification is also based on breakouts.
Breakouts of which is based on trendline & resistance.
Targets? I ll substitute with the same - Resistance Concept.
However, every now and then, I may decide to publish some of the abandoned methods just for educational and entertainment purposes. You may get some ideas from the two methods mentioned above and used it on your own trading strategies/style.
